At large international wine fairs, there is always a temptation to repeat the same story: mature markets are slowing down; younger consumers are changing their habits; competition is intensifying; and everyone is looking for the next growth opportunity. Much of that is true. However, what made this ProWein masterclass genuinely useful was that it moved beyond generic statements and demonstrated how growth is unfolding differently in each market.
Rather than presenting a single narrative about 'emerging markets', a far more interesting picture emerged: wine is advancing through very different mechanisms depending on the country. In one place, digital infrastructure is rewriting the route to market. In another, a behavioural shift during the pandemic has permanently altered the role of wine in everyday life. Elsewhere, deregulation is unlocking demand. In Poland, one of the most striking cases in Europe today, wine is growing not because it is a traditional wine market, but precisely because it is not.
Taken together, the session suggested something important. The future of wine growth will not simply be determined by heritage, production or category prestige. Rather, it will be determined by how successfully wine integrates into evolving local retail, cultural, aspirational and convenient ecosystems.
China remains volatile, difficult and too big to ignore.
China remains one of the most emotionally charged markets in the wine trade. It is a country that has inspired enormous optimism, deep disappointment and repeated overreaction. Any discussion of China tends to swing between two extremes: either it is the market of the future, or it is a cautionary tale. This presentation offered a more balanced and useful perspective.
Firstly, despite all the noise, China’s import market appears to have stabilised at around 16.5 to 17 million nine-litre cases per year. This may not sound dramatic, but given the recent volatility, it is significant. It suggests that, beneath the headlines, the market is finding a foundation. There are still shipment distortions — the speaker noted the surge in Australian wine shipments in 2024, for example, which will inevitably affect the outlook for 2025 — but the broader picture is one of stabilisation rather than collapse.
This is important because China is often discussed as though every short-term fluctuation reflects a permanent structural truth. In reality, this is a market where inventory cycles, political developments and trade flows can dramatically reshape year-on-year figures without necessarily altering the long-term trend.
The long-term direction remains compelling.
The most revealing part of the discussion about China was not about import volume, but about the digital and logistical architecture of the market. This is an area in which many Western wine businesses still fail to recognise the reality. China is not simply a place where familiar global tools operate differently. It is an entirely separate ecosystem. Western platforms do not define influence there. Instagram, Facebook and the Western version of TikTok are largely irrelevant in terms of serious commercial strategy. Instead, the ecosystem revolves around platforms such as WeChat, Douyin, Tmall/Taobao and RED (Xiaohongshu) — vast, highly integrated environments that combine communication, influence, discovery and, increasingly, direct purchasing.
This is important not only from a marketing perspective, but also from a structural business perspective. In China, digital is not just an add-on to distribution. It is distribution itself.
This was especially evident in discussions about instant delivery models. Companies such as Meituan and Dingdong are incorporating wine into rapid-delivery systems originally associated with food, groceries or convenience purchases. One striking example is that consumers can order wine and have it delivered to a restaurant within 20 minutes. This may seem absurd from the perspective of the traditional wine trade, but it reveals a major shift. Wine is being absorbed into a broader convenience economy. It is no longer confined to specialist channels, formal retail settings or pre-planned consumption occasions. It is becoming something that can be incorporated into everyday life with the same speed and ease as other consumer products.
This changes the meaning of accessibility.
The presentation also emphasised that China remains relatively open from a regulatory perspective, especially compared with more tightly restricted alcohol markets elsewhere in Asia. This does not mean it is easy. It means the challenge lies less in prohibition and more in comprehension. If a producer or exporter does not understand how the ecosystem works — especially digitally — they are not just underperforming; they are failing completely. They are effectively absent.
Yet perhaps the most strategically important point was the broader cultural one. The speaker argued that the market is still only scratching the surface of China’s total beverage alcohol economy, which is estimated to be worth around $340 billion. Wine and imported spirits currently account for only a small share of this market. However, among younger consumers, there is a clear sense that the next generation may drink proportionally less baijiu and more wine and imported spirits than the current generation. If this is correct, then the potential upside is enormous.
There was also an interesting observation about the role of Chinese wine itself. Rather than viewing domestic production as a threat to imports, the suggestion was that exciting local wines are helping to develop a broader wine culture. In other words, if Chinese consumers become more engaged with wine through local producers, this could ultimately benefit the entire wine category, including imports. The comparison to the role that ambitious Californian producers once played in developing modern American wine culture was no coincidence. It implies that high-quality domestic producers can help to establish wine as part of a nation's aspirations and identity.
So, in this context, China is not a market for quick wins. It is a market that requires patience, an understanding of the ecosystem, and strategic endurance. The message was not to rush in. Rather, it was 'do not lose sight of the scale of the opportunity just because the path is messy'.
South Korea: when wine stops being exceptional and starts becoming normal.
The Korean section was equally revealing in its own way. While China is focused on long-term scale and structural digital reinvention, Korea exemplifies what happens when a category crosses an invisible cultural threshold.
The starting point is clear enough: wine remains a relatively small category in a country where soju and beer account for around 84 per cent of total alcohol volume. This dominance is significant. It reflects a deeply rooted indigenous drinking culture supported by powerful corporate structures, established consumer habits and long-standing social norms. In such an environment, imported wine is not merely competing with other alcoholic beverages. It is competing with a whole cultural framework.
However, the opportunity is real, precisely because that framework has started to shift.
According to the presentation, the pandemic played a crucial role. During that period, Korean consumers began drinking more wine at home and, in doing so, redefined its purpose. Previously, wine was often associated with formality: special occasions, Western restaurants, luxury moments and imported sophistication. During the pandemic, this image loosened. Wine became something that people might simply drink at home more casually and regularly.
While this shift may sound modest, in terms of category development it is profound. Once a product transitions from occasional indulgence to regular consumption, the entire market evolves. Behavioural patterns change. Purchase channels change. Brand competition changes. Consumer confidence changes.
The major spike in wine imports in 2021 and 2022 reflected demand as well as a logistics panic. Large Korean retail groups, such as Lotte and Shinsegae, were concerned about surging consumer demand and global supply chain disruptions, so they shipped aggressively into the country. This created an inflated picture in the short term, leading to excess inventory that had to be sold off later. However, the crucial insight is that, even after all the corrections, 2025 volumes are still significantly higher than in 2019. Strip away the temporary distortions and Korea still appears to be a market that has genuinely moved upwards.
This is why the speaker described it as exciting.
One of the most useful elements of the Korean analysis was its focus on accessibility. Unlike in China, where digital platforms and instant delivery are central, Korea’s story is strongly tied to convenience stores. Chains such as GS25 have played a key role in increasing wine availability, particularly since the onset of the pandemic. The logic is simple yet powerful: if consumers want to buy wine to drink at home more casually, they need to be able to purchase it easily and conveniently, without having to enter a specialist shop or premium department store.
In that sense, convenience retail is performing a cultural function. It is normalising wine.
At the same time, however, Korea imposes an important constraint: E-commerce for imported alcohol is not legally permitted in the conventional sense. Although there are hybrid systems involving online discovery and reservation through 'smart order' platforms such as DailyShot, Dali, or Wine25, one key part of the transaction still requires physical presence.
This creates an unusual market structure. Online influence matters. Digital discovery matters. However, the final act of purchase remains anchored in physical retail. This makes the retail network itself — particularly convenience retail — even more significant.
The presentation also offered practical strategic advice on market entry. Unlike in China, where multiple routes to market may be appropriate depending on the business model, in Korea the sole importer model is still favoured, or direct work with large retail groups such as Lotte or Shinsegae. The market is compact and centred heavily on Seoul, with only a few secondary cities, and exclusivity is important both culturally and commercially. The implication was clear: in Korea, choosing the right partner is more than just a distribution decision. It is the core strategic decision.
A particularly vivid example of market dynamism was New Zealand, which reportedly increased from around 50,000 cases in 2019 to 643,000 in 2025. This is not just incremental growth. It suggests a country that has effectively connected with the current Korean demand.
It also highlights a broader point: Korea is a market where consumers are clearly open to new styles, origins and habits.
Therefore, the Korean case is not just about growth statistics. It's about a category shifting from one social meaning to another — from imported luxury to everyday accessibility. Once that happens, the market becomes much more interesting.
Thailand: the power of deregulation and the importance of timing
Thailand may be smaller than China or Korea, but it represents one of the cleanest growth stories because the driving force is so identifiable: Deregulation.
The presentation described Thailand as a market that is growing significantly and organically, with much of that growth directly linked to government decisions to reduce the historical constraints on wine. The removal of high import duties and taxes has created a more favourable environment, while the broader softening of restrictions around alcohol sales has also helped. The speaker noted that the political environment is not perfectly stable — changes in administration can alter the regulatory stance — but the current trajectory is encouraging.
This is important because Thailand is still starting from a relatively modest base. Wine currently represents only a small share of the alcohol market, with beer still dominant.
However, the import category has grown impressively, increasing from around 922,000 cases to 1.5 million cases over the past five or six years.
While this is not explosive in absolute global terms, it is significant enough to make Thailand a serious market to watch.
What makes Thailand especially interesting is its dual structure. The market is not driven by a single urban logic. Instead, it appears to operate through two major consumption worlds. Firstly, there is Bangkok, with its business community, corporate entertainment, dining scene, gifting culture and premium hospitality. On the other hand, there is the tourism economy in the south, centred on destinations such as Phuket and Koh Samui, with its resort restaurants and international leisure consumption. The presentation compared this dynamic to the relationship between Jakarta and Bali in Indonesia, which is a useful comparison. It reminds us that wine consumption is not just a matter of national averages. It is also about clusters of high-value behaviour.
Another notable observation was that Thailand has re-criminalised cannabis, which, in the speaker's view, may push some consumers back towards alcoholic beverages. Whether this proves to be significant remains to be seen, but it highlights the broader point that competition between categories does not happen in isolation. Regulatory shifts affecting adjacent consumption categories can also alter alcohol demand.
From a commercial point of view, the Thai market seems to require careful partner selection rather than large-scale production. There are capable importers, modern retail players and professional buyers. Tops stood out as an example — a company with multiple retail formats, sommelier involvement, and a serious commitment to imported wine. This kind of infrastructure is important. It suggests that the market is not merely liberalising on paper, but is also developing the practical retail mechanisms needed to support premium imported wine.
Thailand is therefore not yet a major market in terms of volume. However, it has momentum, and, more importantly, this momentum appears to be the result of structural changes rather than speculation. It is not just a passing trend. It is a market where policy has created room for the category to grow.
Poland is not an emerging footnote, but one of Europe’s most serious growth stories.
While the Asian markets showed different versions of category expansion in progress, Poland offered something else: a convincing case that one of the most dynamic and strategically attractive wine markets in Europe is still underappreciated internationally.
The Poland presentation struck a striking tone from the outset. This was not a story of fragile growth or a niche enthusiast segment slowly gaining ground. It was a story of scale, premiumisation and structural headroom.
The headline number was impressive: Wine value growth of around 60 per cent over the past five to seven years. In a European context, where many wine markets are stagnant or under pressure, this is impressive in itself. But what made the Polish case even more fascinating was the accompanying point about price. According to the speaker, the average retail price of wine in Poland is now around three times higher than in Germany, despite the fact that the average income in Poland is only around half that in Germany. While the exact ratio may fluctuate, the core message is clear: Polish consumers are willing to spend serious money on wine.
This matters more than volume alone because it indicates the type of market Poland is becoming. It is not just a cheap-growth market. It is a premium one.
Nevertheless, wine still accounts for only around 10 per cent of the total alcohol market by value, with beer and spirits remaining dominant. Poland is fundamentally a beer and spirits country. However, the speaker made an important argument that this dominance may now work in wine's favour. At around 105 litres per capita, beer consumption is already at an extraordinary level. Spirits, including vodka and whisky, are showing signs of saturation too. In other words, the older categories have less room left to expand. Wine, by contrast, still does.
This is perhaps one of the most important conceptual points of the entire session. Wine often grows most effectively not where it is already dominant, but where other categories have reached their natural ceiling. In such places, wine becomes the next aspirational category for consumers.
The retail structure in Poland is highly concentrated, with the modern retail channel accounting for around 85% of sales, and two major players — Lidl and Biedronka — reportedly controlling roughly 40 to 45% between them. For high-volume producers, this may sound attractive. For smaller or more artisanal producers, however, it is challenging. However, the speaker was keen to emphasise that the real excitement lies beyond the mass market, in the premium independent sector and in the broader cultural transformation of consumption.
This transformation is evident in category shifts. Red wine, once dominant, is now stagnating or, at least, growing much more slowly. White wine is becoming increasingly important. Sparkling wine is the real star, with reported growth of 142 per cent over five years. This reflects broader changes in drinking occasions and demographics, such as younger women entering the category, more outdoor and informal consumption, a less rigid association with food, an increase in bars and flexible settings, and the growing visibility of local Polish sparkling wines as part of a national trend.
The sparkling wine story leads to one of the most intriguing observations in the presentation: the Prosecco effect. More than 60 per cent of sparkling wine sold in Poland is now Prosecco. It has effectively cannibalised much of the traditional sparkling wine market, including segments that were once more strongly associated with Cava or German Sekt. However, the speaker argued that Prosecco may now be reaching a maturation point of sorts. Not necessarily decline, but a point where the fastest growth is over.
So, what happens next? Champagne.
This was one of the most insightful pieces of category analysis in the session. Many consumers first tried sparkling wine because Prosecco was affordable, fashionable and widely available. However, once consumers become familiar with sparkling wine as a category, some of them will inevitably want to upgrade. They start asking about Champagne, a name they already recognise. They try it. Some stay. In this way, Prosecco has not only acted as a market leader, but also as an educational gateway. It has encouraged people to enjoy sparkling wine, and some of those people are now upgrading.
This is what a real premiumisation ladder looks like.
The broader discussion of exporting countries in Poland was also informative. Italy and France succeed not only because they are well-known, but also because they offer recognition, desirability and diversity. If demand for one category slows, demand for another can increase. Portugal benefits from a strong retail advantage and excellent value, as well as stylistic versatility. Georgia has built momentum through a compelling narrative of qvevri, authenticity and ancient wine culture, even though, as the speaker rather dryly observed, this oversimplifies the reality of Georgian production. Greece and Austria are becoming increasingly popular because they feel new and distinctive, and are culturally interesting. Novelty matters.
By contrast, countries such as Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria face a different problem in that they are not unknown, but are burdened by older perceptions. They may produce excellent wines, but their image belongs to an earlier era. Reinvention is harder than initial discovery. This is a subtle but important insight for exporters. Simply being present in the market is not enough if the market thinks it already understands you — and is wrong.
This brings us to one of the clearest strategic conclusions from the Polish section: Marketing effort matters enormously. Countries and organisations that invest in visibility, events, messaging and education tend to grow. Those who do nothing tend to disappear into the background. France may be an exception because of its long-standing prestige, but for almost everyone else, presence is essential. Not just distribution. Presence.
There was also a particularly revealing point about price positioning. One might assume that, in a fast-growing market, lower-priced wine would always have an advantage. However, the presentation challenged this assumption. While very low price points may increase sales through discount retailers, they are not where the real excitement lies. The real energy lies in premiumisation. The speaker described seeing importers' price lists with bottles of champagne at wholesale prices of 100 euros and above, and noted that fine restaurants in Warsaw are full with expensive wine on the tables. Poland is becoming more than just a wine market. It is becoming a market willing to spend.
Finally, the demographic point was perhaps the simplest and most powerful of all. Roughly 45% of the population now drinks wine at least occasionally, which is a dramatic increase over the past decade. This is not a minor change. It means the consumer base has fundamentally expanded. Once consumers start drinking wine, they usually don't stop altogether. They may change the style, price or frequency of their purchases, but wine has entered their lives.
For this reason, the speaker’s confidence in continued growth did not seem exaggerated. Poland looks less like a temporary growth story and more like a market in the midst of long-term growth.
What links these markets – and what doesn’t?
One of the strengths of the session was its refusal to lump all non-traditional wine markets together under the lazy category of “emerging markets”. They clearly do not.
China is about digital ecosystems, long-term patience and massive scale.
South Korea is about behavioural normalisation and compact, structured partnership models.
Thailand is about the momentum created by deregulation in a small but promising market.
Poland is about premiumisation, category displacement and the growing popularity of wine within a rapidly modernising European consumer culture.
And yet there are patterns linking them.
The first is that access matters as much as aspiration. Wine does not simply grow because consumers admire it. It grows when consumers can find, understand and buy it in ways that fit their everyday lives. In China, for example, this means instant delivery and platform integration. In Korea, it means convenience stores. In Thailand, it is modern retail and tourism-driven hospitality. In Poland, there are discounters on the one hand and increasingly sophisticated premium channels on the other.
Secondly, premiumisation is not confined to traditional fine wine markets. It is happening in places where wine is still a relatively new category. In fact, this may sometimes accelerate the process. Newer consumers are not necessarily committed to the old hierarchies of volume-first buying. They often enter through style, occasion, image or social meaning, and are prepared to spend when those factors align.
Thirdly, category competition is contextual. In all four markets, wine is competing with very strong established categories: baijiu in China, soju in South Korea, beer in Thailand and spirits in Poland. However, rather than viewing this as a fatal obstacle, the session suggested that these dominant categories can actually clarify wine's role. Wine becomes the aspirational alternative: a marker of a different lifestyle and rhythm, and a different kind of occasion.
Finally, the session reinforced that strategy must be local. There is no universal export recipe. What works in Korea may not work in China. A structure that works in Poland may be irrelevant in Thailand. Producers and exporters who rely on generic market-entry logic will struggle. Those who understand the specific mechanics of each location will have a much better chance of success.
Final reflection:
The most interesting thing about this masterclass was not that it identified growth markets. That alone would not be enough. What made it valuable was that it demonstrated how growth is taking shape: through convenience, digital behaviour, cultural repositioning, policy, premiumisation and much more nuanced forms of market development than the usual trade clichés allow.
The old map of the wine world is no longer sufficient. This is not because the classic markets no longer matter, but because the next phase of wine growth will be driven by places where the category is still negotiating its identity.
And that may be the real lesson. Wine does not simply expand when people become richer or more globalised. It expands when it finds a convincing role in local life.
These markets are demonstrating this precisely, each in its own way.